PREAKNESS STAKES PREVIEW.
**BIG DRAMA (Montbrook-Riveting Drama (Notebook)) (David Fawkes/John Velazquez ) (Lifetime 7-5-1-1 $890,250.**
Breaking from the rail the likely pacesetter has not been seen since wiring the field in the Swale S. in late March at Gulfstream. Is game and fast but is unlikely to remain in front of this class of runners over this trip. Small chance of wiring the field.
***MINE THAT BIRD (Birdstone-Mining My Own (Smart Strike)) (Bennie Woolley/Mike Smith) Lifetime 9-5-1-0 $1,791,581.***
Change of tactics and a combination of circumstances enabled Mine That Bird to pull off one of the biggest upsets in Kentucky Derby history. Through Calvin Borel’s brilliant ride from the back on the fast rail and with many of his chief rivals not handling the off track, Mine That Bird was able to put up a lifetime performance. It is unlikely, however, that the stars are going to line up for him again. Even with the possibility of another wet track it has to be considered unlikely that Mine That Bird will be able to close over the generally more speed favoring surface at Pimlico like he did at Churchill, especially without Borel and his rail skimming expertise. There was a good reason he was 50/1 in the Derby and it’s likely that race will be remembered as a fluke. Must be given a chance but will be overbet.
***MUSKET MAN (Yonaguska-Fortuesque (Fortunate Prospect)) (Derek Ryan/Eibar Coa) Lifetime 7-5-0-2 $772,600.***
Ran a great race in the Derby finishing in the photo for the minor awards after overcoming early trouble from a low draw. Illinois Derby winner outran his sprint biased pedigree and was running on well at the finish aided by finding a favorable running strip far off the rail. Is consistent and genuine and has a good shot coming from just off the early pace. Contender.
*LUV GOV (Ten Most Wanted-City of Silver (Nepal)) (D. Wayne Lukas/Jamie Theriot) Lifetime 10-1-3-1 $62,896.
Broke his maiden last out in his 10th try over a sloppy track at Churchill. Did show improvement in that win and ability to handle an off-track but has not shown enough to threaten here. Little chance.*
*****FRIESAN FIRE (A.P.Indy-Bollinger (Aus)(Dehere)) (Larry Jones/Gabriel Saez) Lifetime 8-4-1-1 $603,265.*****
Lost all chance as the deserving Derby favorite when hampered at the start and his form was enhanced when Louisiana Derby runner-up ran a strong race to be fourth. While it is hard for horses to rebound off disastrous efforts such as his in the Derby, one has to believe that trainer Larry Jones would not wheel him back here if all was not right. This notion was reinforced by a brilliant work over the surface on Tuesday. Since he was more or less eased at Churchill he will not, like many in here be attempting to run just two weeks after a hard race and thus should be relatively fresh. Has a perfect running style and handled an off track at Fair Grounds. Leading contender and value may be there.
**TERRAIN (Sky Mesa-Minery (Forty Niner)) Albert Stall/Jeremy Rose) Lifetime 8-3-1-1 $512,084.
New face comes here off a fourth place finish in the Blue Grass having previously finished third in the Louisiana Derby. Was well beaten in both those tries and would have to improve to be a factor here. Small chance.**
****PAPA CLEM (Smart Strike-Miss Houdini (Belong To Me)) (Gary Stute/Rafael Bejarano) Lifetime 7-2-2-0 $ 890,940.
Rated nicely off the pace when winning the Arkansas Derby in his final prep for Kentucky. However, he did not relax as well for Bejarano at Churchill where the early fractions were slower but he still finished well to be in the photo for place and show. With a quick pace expected here Papa Clem may have more left here for a big stretch finish. Major chance. ****
**GENERAL QUARTERS (Sky Mesa-Ecology (Unbridled’s Song)) (Thomas McCarthy/Julien Leparoux) Lifetime 12-3-3-1 $641,735.**
While steadied early in the Derby the surprise Blue Grass winner had little valid excuse for his poor showing. Had beaten a suspect field at Keeneland and had previously proved inferior to Musket Man in Florida. Is short on class and will be up against it again here. Small chance.
****PIONEEROF THE NILE (Empire Maker-Star Of Goshin (Lord At War (Arg)) (Bob Baffert/Garrett Gomez) Lifetime 9-5-1-1 $1,634,200.****
Ran a huge race to be second in the Derby after looking like the winner turning from home but ran on the worst part of the track down the stretch and still held second. Pioneerof The Nile in part proved those who doubted his ability to handle conventional dirt wrong, but may have been helped by the wet surface. Baffert has won the Preakness on four occasions with horses that had all had hard races in the Derby and this colt showed little ill effects from his Churchill performance in his workout on Monday. Pioneerof The Nile has an advantageous stalking running style and a wet track will help his chances. Major chance. *****
*FLYING PRIVATE (Fusaichi Pegasus-Beautiful Treasure (Unbridled)) (D. Wayne Lukas/Alan Garcia) Lifetime 11-1-4-0 $193,080.
Last place Derby finisher with little excuse now has one win from eleven tries. Little to no chance.*
**TAKE THE POINTS (Even The Score-Ginger Ginger (Fred Astaire)) (Todd Pletcher/Edgar Prado) Lifetime 6-2-2-0 $156,190.
Showed his limitations when fourth in the Santa Anita Derby and well beat second in the Sham. Has top connections and tactical speed but is below top class. Small chance.**
*TONE IT DOWN (Medaglia D’oro-Chattin (Rollicking) (William Komio/Kent Desormeaux) Lifetime 6-2-2-1 $54,720. *
Local representative most recently finished third in a minor stakes over this course. Will show speed from the outside but has not shown the ability to run with this class. Little to no chance.
***RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Medaglia D’oro-Lotta Kim (Roar)) (Steve Asmussen/Calvin Borel) Lifetime 10-7-2-0 $958,354.***
Hugely impressive winner of the Oaks will likely be the favorite, but maybe as much through sentimentality as form. While she could not have won the Oaks any easier, and did so in a good time, one does have to question the strength of the opposition, as well as in her previous wins. She was primed for a top effort in the Oaks, which she delivered in perfect conditions, and will now have to bring another one against this solid group of colts – a hard thing to do, especially for a filly, off two weeks rest. Rachel Alexandra’s previous trainer had a schedule mapped out for her which has now changed, never a good thing. Obviously brilliant filly has a strong chance but this will be a huge test and she will offer little betting value.